Ibiciro byo kohereza ku mirongo myinshi bikomeje kuzamuka!

Muri iki gihe cy’ibiruhuko bisanzwe byo gutwara ibicuruzwa, ahantu hato ho gutwara ibicuruzwa, kwiyongera kw’ibicuruzwa bitwara imizigo, ndetse n’igihe cy’ibiruhuko bikomeye byabaye amagambo y’ingenzi ku isoko. Amakuru yashyizwe ahagaragara na Shanghai Shipping Exchange agaragaza ko kuva mu mpera za Werurwe 2024 kugeza ubu, igipimo cy’imizigo iva ku cyambu cya Shanghai ijya ku isoko ry’ibanze rya Amerika y’Epfo cyiyongereyeho 95.88%, naho igipimo cy’imizigo iva ku cyambu cya Shanghai ijya ku isoko ry’ibanze rya cyambu i Burayi cyiyongereyeho 43.88%.

Abahanga mu nganda basesenguye ko ibintu nk'izamuka ry'ibikenewe ku isoko mu Burayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ndetse n'amakimbirane arambye mu Nyanja Itukura ari byo mpamvu nyamukuru zituma igipimo cy'imizigo kizamuka ubu. Kubera ko igihe cyo gutwara ibicuruzwa gisanzwe kigeze, ibiciro byo gutwara amakontena bishobora gukomeza kuzamuka mu gihe kizaza.

Ibiciro byo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu Burayi byiyongereyeho ibirenga 20% mu cyumweru kimwe

Kuva mu ntangiriro za Mata 2024, ikigo gishinzwe kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga cya Shanghai cyashyize ahagaragara ikigo gishinzwe kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga cya Shanghai Shipping Exchange cyakomeje kwiyongera. Amakuru yasohotse ku ya 10 Gicurasi yagaragaje ko igipimo cy’ubwikorezi bw’ibikoresho mu mahanga cya Shanghai cyari amanota 2305.79, cyiyongereyeho 18.8% ugereranyije n’icyumweru gishize, cyiyongereyeho 33.21% uvuye ku manota 1730.98 ku ya 29 Werurwe, n’ubwiyongere bwa 33.21% uvuye ku manota 1730.98 ku ya 29 Werurwe, ari nabyo byari hejuru ugereranyije n’ibyo mu Gushyingo 2023 mbere y’uko ikibazo cy’inyanja itukura kivuka. Byiyongereyeho 132.16%.

Muri byo, inzira zigera muri Amerika y'Epfo n'i Burayi zazamutse cyane. Igipimo cy'imizigo (imisoro yo mu mazi n'iy'ubwikorezi bwo mu mazi) cyoherejwe mu cyambu cya Shanghai kijya ku isoko ry'ibanze rya Amerika y'Epfo ni amadolari y'Amerika 5,461/TEU (ikonteyine ifite uburebure bwa metero 20, izwi kandi nka TEU), cyiyongereyeho 18.1% ugereranyije n'igihe cyashize n'ubwiyongere bwa 95.88% uvuye mu mpera za Werurwe. Igipimo cy'imizigo (imisoro yo kohereza no kohereza) cyoherejwe mu cyambu cya Shanghai kijya ku isoko ry'ibanze rya Afurika ni amadolari y'Amerika 2,869/TEU, cyiyongereyeho cyane 24.7% uvuye mu cyumweru gishize, cyiyongereyeho 43.88% uvuye mu mpera za Werurwe, n'ubwiyongere bwa 305.8% uvuye mu Gushyingo 2023.

Umuyobozi ushinzwe ubucuruzi bw'ubwikorezi bw'ikigo cy’ikoranabuhanga ku isi cyitwa Yunqunar Logistics Technology Group (cyitwa "Yunqunar"), yavuze mu kiganiro n'abanyamakuru ko guhera mu mpera za Mata uyu mwaka, byumvikana ko ibicuruzwa bijyanwa muri Amerika y'Epfo, i Burayi, Amerika ya Ruguru, n'ibiciro by'imizigo ku nzira zo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, mu Buhinde na Pakisitani byiyongereye, kandi ko ukwiyongera kwarushijeho kwiyongera muri Gicurasi.

Amakuru yatangajwe na Drewry, ikigo gishinzwe ubushakashatsi n'ubujyanama mu gutwara ibintu, ku ya 10 Gicurasi, yanagaragaje ko igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa bya Drewry World Container Index (WCI) cyazamutse kigera ku madolari 3,159/FEU (igikoresho gifite uburebure bwa metero 40) muri iki cyumweru (ku ya 9 Gicurasi), ibi bikaba bihuye n’umwaka wa 2022. Cyariyongereyeho 81% ugereranije n’igihe nk’icyo umwaka ushize kandi cyari hejuru ya 122% ugereranyije n’ikigereranyo cya 1,420$/FEU mbere y’icyorezo cya 2019.

Vuba aha, amasosiyete menshi yo gutwara ibintu, harimo ikigo cy’ubwikorezi cya Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), Maersk, CMA CGM, na Hapag-Lloyd, yatangaje ko ibiciro byazamutse. Fata urugero rwa CMA CGM. Mu mpera za Mata, CMA CGM yatangaje ko guhera ku ya 15 Gicurasi, izahindura amahame mashya ya FAK (Freight All Kinds) ku nzira ya Aziya-Uburayi bw’Amajyaruguru ikagera ku madolari ya Amerika 2,700/TEU na 5,000/FEU. Mbere yaho, yari yiyongereyeho 500/TEU na 1,000/FEU; ku ya 10 Gicurasi, CMA CGM yatangaje ko guhera ku ya 1 Kamena, izongera igipimo cya FAK ku mitwaro yoherezwa iva muri Aziya ijya ku byambu bya Nordic. Amahame mashya ari hejuru agera ku madolari ya Amerika 6,000/FEU. Yongeye kwiyongeraho 1,000/FEU.

Ke Wensheng, Umuyobozi Mukuru w’ikigo cy’ubwikorezi ku isi cya Maersk, yavuze mu kiganiro bagiranye mu nama iherutse kugirana ko ubwinshi bw’imizigo ku nzira z’i Burayi za Maersk bwiyongereyeho 9%, ahanini bitewe n’uko abatumiza ibicuruzwa b’i Burayi basaba cyane kuzuza ububiko bw’imizigo. Ariko, ikibazo cy’ahantu hato nacyo cyaravutse, kandi abatwara imizigo benshi bagomba kwishyura ibiciro byo hejuru by’imizigo kugira ngo birinde gutinda kw’imizigo.

Nubwo ibiciro by’ubwikorezi biriyongera, ibiciro bya gari ya moshi zitwara imizigo hagati y’Ubushinwa n’Uburayi nabyo biriyongera. Ushinzwe gutwara imizigo ushinzwe gari ya moshi zitwara imizigo hagati y’Ubushinwa n’Uburayi yabwiye abanyamakuru ko ubu icyifuzo cy’ubwikorezi kuri gari ya moshi zitwara imizigo hagati y’Ubushinwa n’Uburayi cyiyongereye cyane, kandi ibiciro by’ubwikorezi kuri zimwe na zimwe byiyongereyeho amadolari y’Amerika 200-300, kandi birashoboka ko bizakomeza kuzamuka mu gihe kizaza. “Igiciro cy’ubwikorezi bwo mu mazi cyariyongereye, kandi ahantu ho kubika ibintu no ku gihe ntibishobora guhaza ibyifuzo by’abakiriya, bigatuma bimwe mu bicuruzwa byimurirwa mu bicuruzwa bya gari ya moshi. Ariko, ubushobozi bwo gutwara gari ya moshi ni buke, kandi icyifuzo cy’ahantu ho gutwara ibintu cyariyongereye cyane mu gihe gito, ibyo bikaba bizagira ingaruka ku gipimo cy’ubwikorezi.”

Ikibazo cy'ibura ry'amakontenari cyagarutse

“Byaba ari ubwikorezi cyangwa gari ya moshi, hari ikibazo cy’ibura ry’amakontena. Mu duce tumwe na tumwe, ntibishoboka gutumiza amasanduku. Ikiguzi cyo gukodesha amakontena ku isoko kiruta izamuka ry’ibiciro by’imizigo.” Umwe mu bakora mu nganda zikora amakontena muri Guangdong yabwiye abanyamakuru.

Urugero, yavuze ko ikiguzi cyo gukoresha kontineri ifite uburebure bwa metero 40 (ikontineri ifite uburebure bwa metero 1.8) ku nzira iva hagati y’Ubushinwa n’Uburayi cyari amadolari y’Amerika 500-600 umwaka ushize, cyazamutse kigera ku madolari y’Amerika 1.000-1.200 muri Mutarama uyu mwaka. Ubu cyazamutse kigera ku madolari arenga 1.500, kandi kirenga amadolari y’Amerika 2.000 mu duce tumwe na tumwe.

Umukozi ushinzwe gutwara imizigo ku cyambu cya Shanghai yabwiye abanyamakuru ko hari amaduka yo mu mahanga yuzuyemo amakontenari, kandi ko hari ibura rikomeye ry’amakontenari mu Bushinwa. Igiciro cy’amasanduku arimo ubusa i Shanghai na Duisburg, mu Budage, cyazamutse kiva ku madolari 1,450 muri Werurwe kigera ku madolari 1,900 y’Amerika ubu.

Ushinzwe ubucuruzi bw’ubwikorezi bwavuzwe haruguru bwa Yunqunar yavuze ko impamvu ikomeye yatumye amafaranga yo gukodesha amakontenari yiyongera ari uko bitewe n’amakimbirane yo mu Nyanja Itukura, umubare munini w’abafite amato banyuze mu nzira berekeza ku Kiyaga cya Good Hope, byatumye amakontenari yiyongera nibura ibyumweru 2-3 ugereranyije n’igihe gisanzwe, bigatuma amakontenari atagira icyo amara. Ubushyuhe buragabanuka.

Ibyerekeye isoko ry’ubwikorezi ku isi (mu ntangiriro kugeza hagati muri Gicurasi) byatangajwe na Dexun Logistics ku ya 9 Gicurasi byagaragaje ko nyuma y’iminsi mikuru ya Gicurasi, imiterere y’ibicuruzwa muri rusange bitaratera imbere cyane. Hari ibura ry’ibicuruzwa bitandukanye, cyane cyane ibicuruzwa binini n’ibirebire, kandi amwe mu masosiyete y’ubwikorezi akomeje gushimangira ikoreshwa ry’ibicuruzwa mu nzira zo muri Amerika y’Epfo. Ibicuruzwa bishya byakorewe mu Bushinwa byamaze gutangwa mbere y’uko Kamena irangira.

Mu 2021, isoko ry’ubucuruzi bw’amahanga “ryabanje kugabanuka hanyuma rirazamuka”, maze urusobe rw’ibikoresho mpuzamahanga rwahuye n’ibibazo bikomeye bitunguranye. Urujya n’uruza rw’amakontenari akwirakwiriye hirya no hino ku isi ntirumeze neza, kandi ikwirakwizwa ry’amakontenari ku isi yose ntiringana cyane. Umubare munini w’amakontenari adafite ibintu byinshi urimo gusigara inyuma muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, i Burayi, Ositaraliya n’ahandi, kandi igihugu cyanjye gifite amakontenari make yo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga. Kubwibyo, amasosiyete y’amakontenari yuzuye amatumizo kandi afite ubushobozi bwo gukora ibintu byose. Kugeza mu mpera za 2021, ibura ry’amasanduku ryagabanutse buhoro buhoro.

Kubera ko hari iterambere ry’ibikoresho byo gutwara amakontenari ndetse no kongera imikorere myiza ku isoko ry’ubwikorezi ku isi, habayeho ikibazo gikomeye cy’ibikoresho byo gutwara amakontenari bitarimo ibintu byinshi ku isoko ry’imbere mu gihugu kuva mu 2022 kugeza mu 2023, kugeza ubwo hongeye kubaho ikibazo cy’ibura ry’ibikoresho byo gutwara amakontenari muri uyu mwaka.

Ibiciro by'imizigo bishobora gukomeza kuzamuka

Ku bijyanye n'impamvu zituma ibiciro by'imizigo bizamuka cyane vuba aha, umuyobozi ushinzwe ubucuruzi bw'ubwikorezi bwa YQN yasesenguye abanyamakuru ko mbere na mbere, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zarangije icyiciro cyo gukuraho ibicuruzwa maze zinjira mu cyiciro cyo kongera gupakira. Ingano y'ubwikorezi bw'inzira ya trans-Pacific yazamutse buhoro buhoro, byatumye ibiciro by'imizigo bizamuka. Icya kabiri, kugira ngo hirindwe ko Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zihindura ibiciro, amasosiyete ajya ku isoko rya Amerika yifashishije isoko rya Amerika y'Epfo, harimo inganda zikora imodoka, inganda z'ibikorwa remezo, nibindi, maze yimurira imiyoboro yazo y'ibicuruzwa muri Amerika y'Epfo, bituma haboneka ubwiyongere bw'ubwinshi bw'ibicuruzwa byo muri Amerika y'Epfo. Amasosiyete menshi y'ubwikorezi Inzira zijya muri Megizike yongeweho kugira ngo ahaze ibyifuzo byiyongera. Icya gatatu, imiterere y'inyanja itukura yateje ibura ry'umutungo ku nzira z'i Burayi. Kuva ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa kugeza ku bikoresho birimo ubusa, ibiciro by'imizigo byo mu Burayi nabyo biriyongera. Icya kane, igihembwe cy'ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga gakondo kiba mbere y'imyaka yashize. Ubusanzwe Kamena buri mwaka yinjira mu gihe cy'impeshyi yo mu mahanga, kandi ibiciro by'imizigo bizamuka uko bikwiye. Igiciro cy’imizigo cy’uyu mwaka cyariyongereye ukwezi kumwe mbere y’uko byari bimeze mu myaka yashize, bivuze ko igihembwe cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro cy’ibicuruzwa muri uyu mwaka cyageze kare.

Ku ya 11 Gicurasi, Zheshang Securities yasohoye raporo y'ubushakashatsi ifite umutwe ugira uti “Ni gute wareba izamuka ridasanzwe ry’ibiciro byo kohereza amakontena?” Yavuze ko amakimbirane maremare mu Nyanja Itukura yatumye habaho ibibazo mu ruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa. Ku ruhande rumwe, inzira zo kohereza amato zatumye intera yo kohereza amakontena yiyongera. Ku rundi ruhande, kugabanuka k’ubushobozi bwo kohereza amakontena byatumye habaho uruhererekane ruke rw’ibicuruzwa ku byambu, birushaho kongera ibibazo mu ruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa. Byongeye kandi, inyungu ku ruhande rw’ubusabe iragenda irushaho kwiyongera, amakuru y’ubukungu mu Burayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika arimo arazamuka gato, kandi hamwe n’ibyitezwe ko igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa kizazamuka mu gihe cy’impeshyi, ba nyir’imizigo barimo kwegeranya mbere y’igihe. Byongeye kandi, umurongo wa Amerika winjiye mu gihe gikomeye cyo gusinya amasezerano y’igihe kirekire, kandi amasosiyete y’ubwikorezi afite intego yo kongera ibiciro.

Muri icyo gihe, raporo y'ubushakashatsi yizera ko imiterere y'ubwinshi bw'ibicuruzwa n'imikoranire mu nganda mu nganda zitwara amakontenari byagize imbaraga zo kuzamura ibiciro. Zheshang Securities yavuze ko amasosiyete y'ubucuruzi bw'amahanga atwara amakontenari afite urwego rwo hejuru rw'ubwinshi bw'ibicuruzwa. Kugeza ku ya 10 Gicurasi 2024, amasosiyete icumi ya mbere atwara amakontenari yari afite 84.2% by'ubushobozi bwo gutwara. Byongeye kandi, hashyizweho ubufatanye n'ubufatanye hagati y'amasosiyete. Ku ruhande rumwe, mu rwego rwo kugabanuka kw'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe, ni ingirakamaro kugabanya irushanwa rikomeye ry'ibiciro hagahagarara ingendo zo mu mazi no kugenzura ubushobozi bwo gutwara. Ku rundi ruhande, mu rwego rwo kunoza umubano w'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe, byitezwe ko bizagera ku gipimo cyo hejuru cy'ibicuruzwa binyuze mu kwiyongera kw'ibiciro bihuriweho.

Kuva mu Gushyingo 2023, ingabo za Yemeni zo mu bwoko bwa Houthi zagabye ibitero kenshi ku mato mu Nyanja Itukura no mu mazi yegeranye. Amato menshi akomeye hirya no hino ku isi nta yandi mahitamo yagize uretse guhagarika ingendo z'amato yabo yo mu nyanja itukura no mu mazi yegeranye no guhindura inzira zayo hirya no hino ku Kiyaga cy'Ibirori byiza muri Afurika. Muri uyu mwaka, ibintu mu Nyanja Itukura biracyakomeza kwiyongera, kandi imiyoboro y'amazi irafunzwe, cyane cyane urusobe rw'ibicuruzwa hagati ya Aziya n'Uburayi, rwagizweho ingaruka zikomeye.

Ku bijyanye n'icyerekezo cy'isoko ry'amakontenari mu gihe kizaza, Dexun Logistics yavuze ko bitewe n'uko ibintu bimeze ubu, ibiciro by'imizigo bizakomeza gukomera mu gihe cya vuba, kandi ko amasosiyete atwara imizigo yamaze gutegura icyiciro gishya cyo kongera ibiciro by'imizigo.

“Ibiciro by’imizigo y’amakontena bizakomeza kwiyongera mu gihe kizaza. Icya mbere, igihembwe gisanzwe cyo kugurisha mu mahanga kiracyakomeje, kandi imikino Olempike izabera i Burayi muri Nyakanga uyu mwaka, ibi bishobora kuzamura igipimo cy’imizigo; icya kabiri, gukuraho ibicuruzwa mu Burayi no muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika byararangiye, kandi igurishwa ry’imbere mu gihugu muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika rikomeje kuzamura ibyo ryitezwe ku iterambere ry’inganda z’ubucuruzi mu gihugu. Bitewe n’ubwiyongere bw’abaguzi n’ubushobozi buke bwo gutwara ibicuruzwa, igipimo cy’imizigo cyitezwe gukomeza kuzamuka mu gihe gito,” ibi byavuzwe n’uwavuze haruguru Yunqunar.